Vladimir Putin’s shattered army must lick its wounds after ‘victory’ in Bakhmut
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Vladimir Putin claims his forces have finally seized the entirety of what used to be the city of Bakhmut in the Donbas.
However, well over a year into what was meant to be a three-week lightning offensive, key questions remain unanswered about the state of Russia’s invasion.
Russian trolls and officials will undoubtedly spin the advance in Bakhmut into evidence of the might of the Russian army and that the Ukrainians can be defeated.
Just doing military stuff on a battlefield does not constitute a sound campaign plan. Military action needs to be related, either by geography or purpose, in order to build any kind of momentum to break the opponent’s will or capacity to fight.
The fight for Bakhmut has shown that Russian commanders cannot coordinate their disparate forces. Nor can they think up ways to inject elements of surprise and flexibility into their operations or show any regard for economy of effort; all vital military considerations.
If they take any lessons from Bakhmut at all - and it is a big ‘if’ given that the Russian army has rarely shown itself to be a self-critical organisation - they will reinforce the belief that flattening an area with artillery then pushing men forward at great cost to clear what remains is a winning tactic.
It is not, or at least it only can be if you have an unlimited stock of manpower and ammunition and a society that will tolerate the butcher’s bill. None of these are guaranteed anymore for Putin.
It is doubtful Russia has the capacity to mount a large advance.
The armoured vehicles are simply not there and the air cover so desperately needed to shield any ground manoeuvre is still waiting for Ukraine’s air defences to be emptied.
Geography can be an important reason to fight; battling for ground just because it is there, is not. Seizing a major air or sea port can be a vital action and worth the sacrifice. Capturing a small city that doesn’t really lead anywhere is not worth the effort.
Putin has hailed the Bakhmut effort a grand victory and has promised to shower medals all round.
But the truth is that it has been a largely meaningless endeavour, and the exhausted Russian army must now lick its wounds.
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