Putin raising stakes with grain blackmail
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Putin cannot be provoked because he provokes both himself and the West. Constantly responding to these provocations after the fact is a fragile position, which leads to the aggressor's appetite for more.
Putin cannot be provoked because he provokes both himself and the West. Constantly responding to these provocations after the fact is a fragile position, which leads to the aggressor's appetite for more.
There has never been a case when a moderate reaction to a particular provocation on Putin's part would lead to his coming to his senses. There has always been an increase in "wants." Therefore, it is not appropriate to react with too much concern over crossing the “red lines.” The West must set the red lines itself; otherwise, it will look like the United States lacks parity in terms of nuclear weapons. That is, the United States is being pressured, and it is bending. This is what Putin is feeling right now. And that's why he continues provocations along all lines.
What do we see now with the grain deal? Naturally, Putin needs this mechanism to create an image of Russia as the breadwinner of the Global South, that it is fighting for the hungry, and that it cares about these issues. But on the other hand, the Kremlin is well aware that if Ukraine uses this mechanism, it will not benefit them. So, they are trying to keep this mechanism in reserve without completely destroying it.
Implementing a grain deal is a particular process. It includes the shipment of grain from Ukraine, transportation of this grain by sea, and unloading in Turkey. These are the three mandatory links. Based on this agreement, Putin expected one of the links to be broken. But seeing that Erdogan is behaving somehow "disrespectfully" towards him (giving permission for Sweden to join NATO, giving Ukraine the commanders of Azov, generally declaring support for Zelensky, whom Putin does not want to see in person, providing permission to France to inspect the nuclear power plant that Russia is building in Turkey, and generally wanting to join the EU himself), Putin is well aware that this whole thing could end up in the organization of convoys. Of course, convoys not involving Turkey alone, but with the participation of the coastal NATO member states. Then, he decides to exclude the first element from this chain - the shipment. That's why there were attacks on the terminals in the port of Odesa.
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If we manage to agree on the movement of these vessels through the waters of coastal countries, Putin has a sneaky answer for this option as well. That is, he may use the same attack watercraft against them, while at the same time raising elements of Ukrainian watercraft from the bottom near the destroyed span of the Crimean bridge, and thus blame Ukraine.
I started with this principle: do not make concessions to Putin.
How to counteract these insidious plans? Any concession to Putin is a continuation of his expansion. We just need to keep pushing him. We need to provide Ukraine with air defense equipment - more of it - so that we can cover not only the front line and not only Kyiv and the nuclear power plants, but if we consider this grain deal necessary, we need to cover port terminals. That is, Odesa.
Ideally, such a layered air defense system would cover the entire territory of Ukraine. But since neither we nor our allies have the strength to do so, protecting the most critical facilities is necessary.
There are two ways to counteract this. The first is to kill Putin, and the second is to defend ourselves against him. I don't see any other options.
How to cover the ports? With coastal defense systems like our Neptune, which can hit not only maritime targets (our only maritime target is the Russian Black Sea Fleet) but also land targets, such as the Crimean Bridge. In any case, we are talking about long-range land-based missiles or similar air-launched missiles. Then we need aviation not only to take wing and launch these missiles, but also to intercept them. And for this, we require either Western avionics on our aircraft or, even better, Western aircraft with appropriate avionics. If the West claims the offensive is slow, they are making claims about themselves, not us.
A lot depends on Erdogan now. He will now step up his own game. For example, on the issue of organizing convoys. Erdogan will say that Turkey will not go it alone. Let's do it together with NATO forces. And to do this with NATO forces, the Bosporus must be opened. After that, he will make another "unobtrusive offer," saying, "Give me in return accession to the EU, for example, or permit me to buy F-35 fighter jets. Erdogan is a skillful player. What cards he will play (we can, in principle, consider all the cards), but how he will play them depends on his personal talents.
Erdogan can play the same way with Putin on the same grain deal. Many people see the grain deal as an initiative of Erdogan to provide grain to the Islamic world and the Global South. Then Putin violates this agreement. Erdogan may not remain silent, but say: gentlemen (from Sudan, Mali, and other countries), you really need to look at who is playing against you. Russia is destroying you. This is what Putin is afraid of. He will lose a great deal of support in the UN General Assembly. He will lose support at the BRICS summit and support in the SCO. Putin is afraid of this, and Erdogan can play on this. He can play on it seriously.
That is why the situation in the Black Sea region can unfold quite rapidly. The further Putin raises the stakes, the more he will get hit on the nose. Because many politicians, as they say, have lost their patience.
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