Iran Is the Middle East's Most Dangerous Tinderbox
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Ian Bremmer on the myriad problems and pressures that Iran faces today
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (R) meets with Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud (L) in Tehran, Iran on June 17, 2023. Credit - Iranian Presidency / Handout-Anadolu Agency
But Iran’s leaders know their reprieve from pressure will prove temporary. Economic strain continues. Thanks mainly to sanctions, Iran’s currency has lost more than 90% of its value against the dollar over the past decade, and price inflation remains above 40%. Benefits from better relations with the Saudis will take time to materialize, and the rapprochement will likely remain tentative. President Ebrahim Raisi’s “Turn to the East” strategy is intended to bring major new infrastructure investment from both Russia and, more importantly, China, but Russia’s own economic outlook remains perilous, a wartime partnership with the Kremlin will bring new sanctions on Iran, and the Chinese can buy large volumes of heavily discounted oil from Russia, leaving Iran out in the cold.
None of this is new for Iran. A feeble economy and cycles of protest and repression are all too familiar. Yet, lurking in the background are both hope and dread that fundamental change may not be far away.
Finally, there are the continuing risks created by Iran’s nuclear program and the inability of Iranian and Western leaders to broker a new deal over its future. Here, too, the tensions aren’t new, but ever higher levels of uranium enrichment bring closer the day when Israeli and American policymakers must decide how to block Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon that could trigger a dangerous arms race in the Middle East.
It might appear that the problems Iran creates for itself and those it poses for outsiders never change. Yet the risk is rising that Iran will soon become one of the world’s most dangerous wild cards.
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